Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Professor, Department of Political Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
2
PhD Student in Political Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
3
PhD in Political Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
4
PhD Student, Department of Public Administration, Faculty of Management and Economics, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Tehran, Iran.
10.22080/sod.2026.31438.1042
Abstract
The flight of human capital, a critical strategic challenge for Iran, seriously threatens the nation’s capacity for achieving sustainable development. Employing a foresight approach, this qualitative study investigates the long-term consequences of this ongoing phenomenon using the Futures Wheel methodology. Data were gathered through semi-structured interviews with fifteen purposively selected subject-matter experts and subsequently processed via qualitative content analysis. Findings reveal a set of first-order consequences across four key dimensions: scientific-technological, economic, socio-cultural, and governance. Prominent among these are the weakening of the research ecosystem, technological stagnation, erosion of social capital, and diminished governance effectiveness, each precipitating deeper, second-order impacts. The analysis concludes that persistent elite migration functions as a negative feedback loop, leading to the continuous erosion of the country’s developmental infrastructure and severely limiting its capacity to address future challenges.
Keywords
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