نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استاد گروه جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.
2 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.
3 دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.
4 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مدیریت دولتی، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The flight of human capital, a critical strategic challenge for Iran, seriously threatens the nation’s capacity for achieving sustainable development. Employing a foresight approach, this qualitative study investigates the long-term consequences of this ongoing phenomenon using the Futures Wheel methodology. Data were gathered through semi-structured interviews with fifteen purposively selected subject-matter experts and subsequently processed via qualitative content analysis. Findings reveal a set of first-order consequences across four key dimensions: scientific-technological, economic, socio-cultural, and governance. Prominent among these are the weakening of the research ecosystem, technological stagnation, erosion of social capital, and diminished governance effectiveness, each precipitating deeper, second-order impacts. The analysis concludes that persistent elite migration functions as a negative feedback loop, leading to the continuous erosion of the country’s developmental infrastructure and severely limiting its capacity to address future challenges.
کلیدواژهها [English]
)